College Football · resolved market
Will Notre Dame beat Purdue?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb44ff330a238adfc2c589a0b67e70e9cad1a5ff4d71377bb785801bbf5e9e212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Notre Dameof Notre Dame, Purdue
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Purdue | 26c | 1,055$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.75 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Notre Dame | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed Notre Dame | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Purdue | 27c | 396.71$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.11 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Notre Dame | 74c | 350$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab2…6435backed Notre Dame | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…8fa0backed Notre Dame | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed Purdue | 34c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Purdue | 23c | 107.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Notre Dame | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Notre Dame | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Notre Dame | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Purdue | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Purdue | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…61b3backed Notre Dame | 73c | 34.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Notre Dame | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Notre Dame | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Notre Dame | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed Notre Dame | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Notre Dame | 73c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Notre Dame beat Purdue? this page
- Will Notre Dame beat Purdue by 10 or more points?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.