Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb470b758ba51bb8f913dfde8d2a28eefb5e3d853f6c8554b2634eb4215a86930
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AS Romaof Juventus FC, AS Roma
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Juventus FC | 23c | 9,498$2,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AS Roma | 78c | 8,950$6,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.27 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Juventus FC | 1c | 3,757$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Juventus FC | 15c | 1,247$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.83 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked AS Roma | 77c | 591$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.93 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed AS Roma | 78c | 552.48$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.61 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked AS Roma | 78c | 547.03$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.35 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…1950backed AS Roma | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked AS Roma | 77c | 134.22$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed AS Roma | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked AS Roma | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Juventus FC | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Juventus FC | 22c | 85.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Juventus FC | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 55.3%78 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Juventus FC | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked AS Roma | 78c | 72.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked AS Roma | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Juventus FC | 24c | 57.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed AS Roma | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed AS Roma | 75c | 39.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed AS Roma | 78c | 32.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…8217backed AS Roma | 78c | 13.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)this page
- Juventus FC vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Juventus FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Over won
- Juventus FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Over won
- Juventus FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.