Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4c52754884f075f3bba37f452d2eb0e9c9f918007ea67bff8f9df9a4ad80531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 18c | 988.85$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.79 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 520.64$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 15c | 299.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 35c | 295.23$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.36 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 76c | 292.65$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52a…43dfbacked No | 9c | 252.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 239.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 24c | 224.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 11c | 218.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 210.41$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 49c | 208.59$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 8c | 182.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 27c | 173.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 10c | 157.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 47c | 156.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 62c | 144.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 42c | 112.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 38c | 107.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 102.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 65c | 98.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 24c | 96.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 14c | 94.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 75c | 89.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 13c | 88.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed Yes | 37c | 75.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 56c | 69.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed Yes | 72c | 67.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 65c | 66.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 60.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 60.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 40c | 58.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 70c | 56.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 39c | 50.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…895ebacked Yes | 61c | 47.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 41c | 46.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 40.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 40.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 36c | 38.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 57c | 38.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 50c | 38.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 41c | 34.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…114dbacked Yes | 55c | 34.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 34.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 43c | 33.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 65c | 33.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…642cbacked Yes | 37c | 32.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xae4f…cde1backed No | 69c | 27.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2a…3ba6backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 59c | 22.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 21.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 62c | 21.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…610cbacked Yes | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 75c | 18.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…36d1backed No | 65c | 17.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…c10fbacked Yes | 69c | 15.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.