Other European Leagues · resolved market
Aarhus GF vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4c5c9f632b499258c376fa949e2456448569f3397aab9d5605bedf4f0b3171e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 1,059$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.78 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 671.88$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.19 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 112 | 37.5%42 W · 70 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over | 60c | 655$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 642.23$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.59 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 72c | 555.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Over | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 45c | 370.98$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.89 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 40c | 306.25$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.75 | 112 | 29.5%33 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…b728backed Over | 40c | 238.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 208.25$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…5be4backed Over | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 41c | 76.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 40c | 74.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 40c | 74.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 306 | 56.2%172 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 40c | 74.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 198 | 60.1%119 W · 79 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 40c | 74.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 322 | 59.3%191 W · 131 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 23c | 69.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 42c | 62.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 40c | 48.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Over | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 60c | 32.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 241 | 46.9%113 W · 128 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297e…612fbacked Under | 52c | 31.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Under | 40c | 29.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Over | 60c | 28.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2912…6817backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 60c | 24.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…d3cbbacked Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 70c | 19.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aarhus GF vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 2.5this page
- Aarhus GF vs. FC Nordsjælland: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aarhus GF vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 3.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)FC Nordsjælland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.