Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4d715b999c3f62058d66f7ef4b46a792d319c8e9ef3f54370c2cea86b0b8785
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6394…9bb3backed No | 79c | 7,431$5,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 22c | 3,421$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.19 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 2,755$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.84 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Yes | 21c | 2,394$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.79 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 78c | 2,312$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.6 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 21c | 2,206$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 80c | 1,870$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 80c | 1,483$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.41 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 8c | 1,442$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 20c | 1,249$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.82 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 22c | 1,009$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…4015backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 5c | 579.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 21c | 547.44$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.16 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…db15backed No | 79c | 490$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…b4bfbacked Yes | 9c | 449.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 22c | 363.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 79c | 134.91$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 21c | 111.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 15c | 103.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 21c | 94.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…992cbacked No | 79c | 90.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 80c | 89.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 20c | 81.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 21c | 66.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 79c | 45.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 74c | 41.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed No | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked No | 78c | 30.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 74c | 29.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 80c | 27.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 79c | 21.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…03c8backed No | 80c | 16.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.