Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4dc424c5db42c2e9f5fa5bdfbb6f45df4a543c1e6845f11e584a48b3abafeae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9679…9315backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 3,338$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.46 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed 1win | 21c | 3,215$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.63 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 3,036$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.81 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked 1win | 1c | 1,330$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed 1win | 44c | 1,165$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.04 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 34c | 1,097$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.72 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 701.58$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.38 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…9a3bbacked 1win | 44c | 454.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da1…e6dfbacked 1win | 40c | 428.55$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.19 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed 1win | 32c | 331.52$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked 1win | 39c | 330$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…528abacked 1win | 20c | 259.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed 1win | 32c | 241.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked 1win | 17c | 228.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked 1win | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 1win | 16c | 106.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed 1win | 41c | 98.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 77.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8668…cbc7backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…3ac2backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 55.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…f488backed 1win | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 42.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.