South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4dca67422b2fd3c7236e1c6492106ae083c5ca44453642d239909a42de3c53e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CR Flamengoof CR Flamengo, EC Bahia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed CR Flamengo | 34c | 8,474$2,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,592.92 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed EC Bahia | 65c | 2,898$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.94 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked EC Bahia | 66c | 2,474$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.86 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed EC Bahia | 66c | 1,336$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.88 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed CR Flamengo | 40c | 1,137$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.99 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed EC Bahia | 66c | 671.6$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.97 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed EC Bahia | 59c | 664.31$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.2 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed EC Bahia | 58c | 433.25$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.34 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked EC Bahia | 66c | 380.37$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.04 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed EC Bahia | 60c | 269.38$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.63 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed CR Flamengo | 42c | 210.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…89b6backed CR Flamengo | 44c | 195.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked EC Bahia | 66c | 193.52$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.35 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed EC Bahia | 61c | 151.42$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked CR Flamengo | 47c | 144.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0591…4247backed CR Flamengo | 47c | 144.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed EC Bahia | 66c | 128.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed CR Flamengo | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked EC Bahia | 55c | 81.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed CR Flamengo | 37c | 63.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed EC Bahia | 64c | 59.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked EC Bahia | 66c | 59.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed EC Bahia | 56c | 57.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed EC Bahia | 66c | 57.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed EC Bahia | 66c | 57.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed CR Flamengo | 47c | 55.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked EC Bahia | 57c | 52.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed EC Bahia | 60c | 50.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked EC Bahia | 59c | 47.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked EC Bahia | 58c | 39.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed EC Bahia | 66c | 39.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…bbc1backed EC Bahia | 66c | 36.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…f863backed CR Flamengo | 41c | 35.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked EC Bahia | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…1f3ebacked EC Bahia | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked CR Flamengo | 44c | 28.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…3c32backed CR Flamengo | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked EC Bahia | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked EC Bahia | 59c | 23.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked EC Bahia | 66c | 20.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)this page
- CR Flamengo vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CR Flamengo vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5Under won
- CR Flamengo vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5Under won
- CR Flamengo vs. EC Bahia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)EC Bahia won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.