South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Flamengo vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc294962508ef5e482e3755b0ab199c692488320efba4f61088f96034180b39a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 53c | 3,328$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.76 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Over | 54c | 2,067$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.93 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…ab1fbacked Over | 52c | 1,307$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 9c | 1,225$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.73 | 3,807 | 38.4%1,463 W · 2,344 L | -29.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 80c | 594.67$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 3,446 | 51.4%1,771 W · 1,675 L | +21.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 22c | 499.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ff…84d1backed Over | 75c | 410$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 25c | 393.47$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 727 | 50.5%367 W · 360 L | -25.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 74c | 364.43$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 80c | 317.59$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 65c | 298.68$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 2,175 | 43.6%948 W · 1,227 L | -56.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 293.39$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 24c | 219.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 2,598 | 39.3%1,022 W · 1,576 L | -26.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 212.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 20c | 184.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 1,323 | 42.8%566 W · 757 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 71c | 139.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 39c | 136.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 24c | 126.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 39c | 124.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 53c | 120.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Over | 58c | 106.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 13c | 104.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 92.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 5,821 | 45.4%2,642 W · 3,179 L | +97.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 61c | 83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 19c | 79.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,305 | 53.6%700 W · 605 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 50c | 76.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 407 | 50.9%207 W · 200 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Under | 20c | 74.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 50c | 67.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 65c | 66.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 80c | 57.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Over | 62c | 53.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa91f…ce84backed Over | 54c | 52.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 61c | 49.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 62c | 46.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 929 | 45.1%419 W · 510 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…3607backed Over | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 71c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…3235backed Over | 71c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 66c | 18.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Flamengo vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5this page
- CR Flamengo vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CR Flamengo vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5Under won
- CR Flamengo vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5Under won
- CR Flamengo vs. EC Bahia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)EC Bahia won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.