Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb522536e52666c446494cb51c9c242af8c644459280e4e3b10b8f26a0b727de7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 594.96$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 27c | 534.79$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.93 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 23c | 295.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 265.98$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 18c | 255.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 181.41$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 161.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 150.11$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 27c | 140.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 24c | 125.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 24c | 121.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 100.35$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 98.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 26c | 94.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 76c | 85.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…6a0fbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 25c | 71.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 316 | 57.6%182 W · 134 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 67.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…93e0backed Yes | 19c | 66.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 77c | 64.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 34c | 62.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 20c | 57.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 71c | 56.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 76c | 53.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 268 | 63.1%169 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 52.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 28c | 49.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 76c | 48.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 77c | 45.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 43.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 78c | 38.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 77c | 36.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 22.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab0…997cbacked No | 79c | 17.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.