Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb54da8187af4a5444accba508edf013f9dedde94a78dcd08169ca0f093a06ede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Cavaliersof Virginia Cavaliers, North Carolina State Wolfpack
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,904 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 47,638$25,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,412.11 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 53c | 46,526$24,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,483.48 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 37,256$17,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,513.27 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 30,099$14,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,952.47 | 177 | 42.9%76 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 8,585$4,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,402.07 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.85 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 3,409$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.41 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 52c | 2,478$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.64 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 2,082$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.24 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 1,602$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.19 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 49c | 1,497$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.49 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 1,182$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.26 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 688.71$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.04 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Virginia Cavaliers | 51c | 597.63$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.97 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 50c | 472.36$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.98 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Virginia Cavaliers | 51c | 363.5$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.12 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 347.73$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.54 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 310.76$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.52 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…37f3backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 38c | 259.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 50c | 251.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.72 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 50c | 205.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 50c | 195.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 50c | 181.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 50c | 158.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 57c | 132.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 49c | 106.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 220 | 43.2%95 W · 125 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 95.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 95.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 51c | 90.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 81.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…4cc1backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 74.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…0c9dbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 44c | 69.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…954ebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 57.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 54.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 51.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…0da9backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 50c | 46.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…2e2abacked Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 46.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 46.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 42.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 42.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 42.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 241 | 48.5%117 W · 124 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 42.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 42.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 52c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…13d4backed Virginia Cavaliers | 51c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 49c | 26.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 49c | 24.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 51c | 23.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 51c | 23.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Virginia Cavaliers | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-6.5)this page
- North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Virginia CavaliersVirginia Cavaliers won
- North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 148.5Over won
- North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 149.5Over won
- North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 150.5Over won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-5.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.