Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc0ee5757f1ca502c6c3d1e29adfb7a3e8a74bfc3ab63698e374d516edd78667
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Cavaliersof Virginia Cavaliers, North Carolina State Wolfpack
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,031 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 45c | 9,010$4,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,029.79 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…1862backed Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 8,952$4,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,994.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 52c | 213.67$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 200.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Virginia Cavaliers | 46c | 107.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 90.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Virginia Cavaliers | 56c | 88.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 61.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 48c | 48.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 38.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8612…b456backed Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 36.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Virginia Cavaliers | 57c | 34.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 48c | 34.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 45c | 29.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 48c | 25.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…5f41backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 23.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-5.5)this page
- North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Virginia CavaliersVirginia Cavaliers won
- North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 148.5Over won
- North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 149.5Over won
- North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 150.5Over won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-6.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.