Us Politics · resolved market
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 16 - March 22 be between 18,500,000 and 19,000,000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5982353d02f4a0a4120d7e4b2e9c0d6b5004579d7f784a52ae39df54e36ca54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,246 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 10c | 288.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…d8d8backed Yes | 6c | 268.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x281e…c94abacked No | 80c | 214.56$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…7c12backed Yes | 20c | 214.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b11…6eefbacked Yes | 46c | 101.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 54.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…7ae1backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +96%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…fd89backed No | 50c | 39.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 32c | 32.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f72…50dbbacked Yes | 77c | 31.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 16 - March 22 be between 18,500,000 and 19,000,000?this page
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 16 - March 22 be between 17,500,000 and 18,000,000?No won
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 16 - March 22 be between 18,000,000 and 18,500,000?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.