NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb59ab4899ce687f95d539c23bee6fa3a5a64db062533cd6da6d322978abc97fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11a0…89ebbacked Over | 46c | 4,240$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ef…a03cbacked Under | 54c | 4,240$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 2,942$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.09 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 43c | 2,737$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.84 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…b542backed Over | 45c | 1,023$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f35…8a08backed Under | 55c | 1,023$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f5…b1e3backed Over | 45c | 760$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…e89bbacked Under | 55c | 760$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…d623backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f6…6156backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 41c | 180$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5c3fbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…a088backed Over | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.