NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Red Wings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcca992e5f3623a9c523053f2464693c64c1ad313decbd75fb0f37f3c995cf89f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Lightning, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $420,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $426,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 903 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Red Wings | 42c | 77,204$32,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,778.42 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Red Wings | 42c | 46,368$19,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,959.7 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Lightning | 58c | 37,273$21,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,500.51 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Lightning | 58c | 25,000$14,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,499.96 | 362 | 42%152 W · 210 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Lightning | 58c | 24,894$14,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,323.4 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Lightning | 57c | 24,000$13,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,590 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Red Wings | 50c | 23,041$11,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,628.54 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Lightning | 54c | 21,871$11,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,900.13 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Lightning | 58c | 20,116$11,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,667.41 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Lightning | 58c | 20,000$11,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,600 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Red Wings | 47c | 19,945$9,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,498.09 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Red Wings | 43c | 16,928$7,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,649.14 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Red Wings | 43c | 16,665$7,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,499.05 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Red Wings | 46c | 13,462$6,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,279.42 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Lightning | 55c | 13,106$7,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,208.51 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Red Wings | 45c | 13,026$5,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,169.93 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Lightning | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,800 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -9.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…2f26backed Lightning | 58c | 8,995$5,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,217.1 | 705 | 47.7%336 W · 369 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Lightning | 56c | 8,473$4,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,744.88 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa4…e9d2backed Lightning | 58c | 7,758$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Lightning | 57c | 7,150$4,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,089.84 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…ffaabacked Lightning | 57c | 5,024$2,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,863.69 | 119 | 47.9%57 W · 62 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Red Wings | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Red Wings | 42c | 4,751$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750.83 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +7.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked Red Wings | 42c | 4,500$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,610 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…f0cabacked Lightning | 59c | 4,485$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,640 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Red Wings | 42c | 4,063$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,356.29 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lightning | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Lightning | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Red Wings | 45c | 2,961$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.61 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Lightning | 57c | 2,871$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.43 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cae…9c47backed Red Wings | 50c | 2,560$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e75…2a84backed Lightning | 50c | 2,560$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…9cc3backed Red Wings | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Lightning | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Lightning | 57c | 2,500$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.01 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Red Wings | 42c | 2,400$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…7db1backed Lightning | 59c | 2,399$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Lightning | 58c | 1,750$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.67 | 217 | 50.2%109 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Lightning | 34c | 1,723$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.54 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7301…252fbacked Red Wings | 41c | 1,685$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa63e…722ebacked Lightning | 59c | 1,685$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Lightning | 54c | 1,596$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.84 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Red Wings | 41c | 1,577$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.41 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 55c | 1,566$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.2 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…332abacked Lightning | 59c | 1,565$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d99…91afbacked Red Wings | 42c | 1,565$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…940bbacked Lightning | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…96dbbacked Red Wings | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e349backed Red Wings | 42c | 1,455$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Lightning | 58c | 1,324$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.11 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Red Wings | 43c | 1,313$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.45 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Red Wings | 43c | 1,210$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.3 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed Red Wings | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.48 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Lightning | 33c | 1,189$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.53 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Lightning | 55c | 1,075$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.26 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0700…241dbacked Lightning | 58c | 1,050$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Red Wings | 42c | 1,011$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.6 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730d…6cfabacked Red Wings | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…8d6cbacked Lightning | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Lightning | 59c | 999.97$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.99 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Lightning | 6c | 980$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Red Wings | 44c | 974.14$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.52 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Lightning | 13c | 924.22$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe510…386abacked Red Wings | 41c | 917.64$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…69cdbacked Lightning | 59c | 917.64$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Red Wings | 50c | 876.02$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.97 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…4b7fbacked Lightning | 59c | 870$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…bff0backed Red Wings | 42c | 801.36$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…d15dbacked Lightning | 59c | 790$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Red Wings | 47c | 780$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.4 | 369 | 48%177 W · 192 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning | 32c | 765.62$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lightning | 27c | 635.14$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.14 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Red Wings | 42c | 609.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.8 | 1,079 | 54.3%586 W · 493 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6133…ece3backed Red Wings | 42c | 600$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Lightning | 58c | 600$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…a297backed Lightning | 59c | 596.33$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6421…5ba3backed Red Wings | 42c | 549.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Lightning | 28c | 532$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de4…ca53backed Red Wings | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Red Wings | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Red Wings | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00f…7e26backed Lightning | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Lightning | 33c | 488$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…9e61backed Lightning | 58c | 480$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14b1…f285backed Red Wings | 42c | 480$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47df…409cbacked Lightning | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Red Wings | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…7e6ebacked Red Wings | 42c | 399.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Lightning | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…d7e8backed Red Wings | 42c | 357$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Lightning | 58c | 353.97$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.72 | 622 | 49.4%307 W · 315 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Red Wings | 41c | 350$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…a4b2backed Red Wings | 42c | 345$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Lightning | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…5ab3backed Lightning | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf7…6165backed Lightning | 29c | 340.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb840…9989backed Red Wings | 43c | 334.88$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.88 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Lightning | 9c | 332$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 33.9%42 W · 82 L | -14.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47d5…7731backed Red Wings | 42c | 329$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Red Wingsthis page
- Lightning vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.