Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK win on 2025-10-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5b6dea2a0e912a5743674f48af2cc746ca8e2bf1506739a1f07d2d6ca9fd57c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 24c | 5,316$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.44 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 76c | 3,947$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.37 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed Yes | 77c | 2,872$2,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 29c | 2,000$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.95 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 24c | 543.15$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…56d5backed Yes | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…897bbacked Yes | 76c | 261.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 22c | 222.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 23c | 184.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 72c | 135.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 76c | 131.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed Yes | 75c | 121.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…aceebacked Yes | 77c | 102.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 29c | 70.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c7…e539backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed No | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked Yes | 72c | 53.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243e…e295backed Yes | 76c | 31.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…6c70backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa798…492ebacked Yes | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Yes | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…595fbacked Yes | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK win on 2025-10-23?this page
- Will AEK vs. Aberdeen FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Aberdeen FC win on 2025-10-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.