TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Houston win the NCAA tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,407 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2137…0677backed Yes15c5,450$813 inLost-$812.57021.4%15 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b7…3882backed Yes15c5,394$825 inLost-$825.491010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-80.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecdb…da79backed Yes13c2,200$288 inLost-$2881625%4 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac51…3f9ebacked Yes15c584$88 inLost-$87.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3756…ed8cbacked Yes14c142.86$20 inLost-$2090%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost-$203050%15 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01f0…f002backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9736…5bc5backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.