Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will Purdue win the NCAA tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85f204e0e4540465c0409164902e5f43e3cc493a32328d5f2742c12fff6354a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07b7…3882backed Yes | 29c | 21,767$6,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,319.69 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 17c | 8,350$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.03 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…46d5backed Yes | 27c | 5,800$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 21c | 3,550$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.49 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 26c | 3,466$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 23c | 3,331$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.49 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…467abacked Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 19c | 2,233$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.62 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…19fcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,010$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,900$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Yes | 28c | 1,570$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 23c | 695.47$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.19 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 64c | 643$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 10c | 440$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c5…46e1backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 27c | 336.32$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3693…c9afbacked Yes | 14c | 296.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd580…04cfbacked Yes | 27c | 296.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 35c | 260$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…36d9backed No | 78c | 236.68$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed No | 72c | 217.57$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 14c | 192.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…2d07backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e9…b211backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…f002backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…7e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 75.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Purdue win the NCAA tournament?this page
- Will Alabama win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Arizona win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Auburn win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will BYU win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Baylor win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Clemson win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Creighton win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Duke win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Fla. Atlantic win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Florida win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Gonzaga win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Houston win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Illinois win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Kansas win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Kentucky win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Marquette win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Mississippi St. win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Nebraska win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will North Carolina win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Saint Mary's win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will San Diego St. win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Tennessee win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Texas win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will UConn win the NCAA tournament?Yes won
- Will Washington St. win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will Wisconsin win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will a 9-16 seed win the NCAA tournament?No won
- Will the Iowa State University win the NCAA tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.