Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb689913099418bb4c643819f0d5ee152a85e8252d146a4f952fffde3b0753985
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 1,559$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.16 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 62c | 806.85$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 552.13$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 56c | 528$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.2 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 478.2$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 447$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.85 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.87 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 50c | 299.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.7 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 16c | 102.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778f…7860backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 58c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 53c | 67.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 31c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 63c | 58.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 50c | 58.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0c2cbacked Over | 58c | 43.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 43c | 41.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 56c | 38.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 54c | 38.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 61c | 38.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 38c | 31.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 47c | 28.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.