MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb69bc1f01d652e2ef502a626508d3c37c1fd43130988d2c8888c26547165a900
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,460 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 1,000$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.4 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 691$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.48 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 485.25$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.4 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 391.34$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.67 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 358.2$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.23 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked San Francisco Giants | 43c | 350$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 330$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.92 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 251.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.53 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.08 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 189$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.86 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 177$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 170$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 110.78$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 109.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | -9.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 78.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 68.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 52.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked San Francisco Giants | 36c | 43.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…2837backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 32.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked San Francisco Giants | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 22.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.