Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Union St.-Gilloise beat Braga?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb69e5221a81c244875227ed57d6865fff452396d9b7b776f772ffbab7c6222b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 51c | 4,028$2,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.11 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 51c | 1,980$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.16 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 47c | 496.28$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.58 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 23c | 447.66$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.17 | 121 | 66.9%81 W · 40 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 30c | 294.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.18 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 48c | 261.86$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…2760backed Yes | 24c | 128.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.69 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 51c | 101.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x595e…d36ebacked Yes | 47c | 47.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 48c | 46.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…7a45backed Yes | 51c | 46.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…b5eebacked Yes | 46c | 44.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…23b0backed Yes | 48c | 44.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…f429backed Yes | 47c | 44.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…e7d1backed Yes | 47c | 44.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…9712backed No | 49c | 43.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…0100backed No | 45c | 41.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…7580backed No | 49c | 40.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e5…cdecbacked No | 49c | 40.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…811cbacked Yes | 51c | 40.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…8a51backed Yes | 48c | 40.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0575…56acbacked No | 49c | 39.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe7…51aabacked Yes | 48c | 39.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…d466backed No | 51c | 38.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26b…1ee0backed Yes | 48c | 36.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…ad45backed No | 52c | 35.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce36…077dbacked No | 52c | 35.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…53e6backed Yes | 48c | 35.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…1d94backed Yes | 47c | 35.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…5b63backed Yes | 49c | 34.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…a154backed Yes | 51c | 34.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…b45dbacked Yes | 51c | 33.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd98…3fd2backed No | 49c | 33.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…8e1bbacked No | 54c | 33.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…9630backed Yes | 51c | 32.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…0336backed Yes | 47c | 31.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a81…375fbacked No | 49c | 30.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc09…4b33backed Yes | 47c | 30.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee82…08b2backed No | 53c | 30.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf140…d073backed No | 53c | 29.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1227…3349backed No | 52c | 29.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…a7a6backed No | 52c | 29.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc04…126fbacked No | 53c | 29.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…37c9backed Yes | 55c | 27.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…089ebacked No | 52c | 26.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…01c2backed No | 53c | 26.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…6437backed No | 52c | 25.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…84cebacked Yes | 54c | 25.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf623…3c87backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…f977backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ec…77cfbacked No | 53c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58f…bd27backed Yes | 49c | 24.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…4831backed Yes | 52c | 23.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…1fffbacked Yes | 47c | 22.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f97…fbffbacked No | 53c | 20.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78c…2dffbacked No | 53c | 19.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…e417backed Yes | 54c | 18.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Union St.-Gilloise beat Braga?this page
- Will Braga beat Union St.-Gilloise?No won
- Will the match between Union St.-Gilloise and Braga end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.