Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Execration vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6a4d94c8d117907ba0c9d1c07c3ec8e73944c7885c90a86b09f42fd25389f70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Execrationof Execration, Ivory
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Execration | 75c | 1,330$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.5 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Ivory | 5c | 1,100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Ivory | 28c | 1,021$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.83 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Ivory | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Ivory | 21c | 799.79$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.49 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Execration | 72c | 731.94$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.94 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Ivory | 49c | 603.01$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.12 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Ivory | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ivory | 25c | 309.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Execration | 72c | 288.89$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.89 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Execration | 50c | 123.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Execration | 50c | 107.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Ivory | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Execration | 58c | 57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Ivory | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…45aebacked Execration | 57c | 49.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Execration | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Execration | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Execration vs Ivory - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Execration vs Ivory (BO3)Execration won
- Dota 2: Execration vs Ivory - Game 1 WinnerExecration won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.