NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Bills
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6c45df45afa17cc21abd3af127d0540c4c51204342ae69eac432f0d178ae0cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Steelers, Bills
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Steelers | 1c | 7,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Bills | 36c | 4,943$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,184.22 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Steelers | 56c | 4,650$2,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,622.87 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Bills | 57c | 1,577$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.05 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Steelers | 49c | 1,301$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.23 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Steelers | 40c | 699$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.37 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Bills | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Steelers | 55c | 477.83$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.03 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Bills | 76c | 353.29$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cc…f76cbacked Steelers | 54c | 333.14$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…677fbacked Bills | 76c | 288.11$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Steelers | 47c | 228.16$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Bills | 42c | 222$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Bills | 34c | 207$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.62 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Steelers | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81e…74a5backed Bills | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Steelers | 68c | 124$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Steelers | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Bills | 42c | 78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Steelers | 65c | 64.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…30e6backed Bills | 35c | 46.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed Bills | 36c | 40.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…4d6abacked Steelers | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Steelers | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…bf37backed Steelers | 60c | 26.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.