Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb71844a9982b0c29eedda96b523e776720d004f423658907d9736b2e9ef96466
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2efa…8a01backed Under | 50c | 798$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 51c | 622.81$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.63 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 52c | 609.98$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.56 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…2000backed Over | 47c | 600$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…0764backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed Over | 50c | 443$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.5 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Over | 48c | 208.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc299…b630backed Over | 48c | 207.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b89abacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 47c | 107.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…d27cbacked Over | 31c | 106.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…5146backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 253 | 56.5%143 W · 110 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…bf95backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 259 | 53.3%138 W · 121 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Over | 48c | 94.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 71c | 81.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c09…b6ffbacked Over | 49c | 67.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3eb…33d3backed Over | 50c | 67.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Over | 48c | 41.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3898…4b07backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…7fb5backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…a70ebacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 50c | 25.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…555bbacked Under | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)Xtreme Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.