CS2 · resolved market
CS: Falcons vs paiN
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb779e8d87d3e1f677e5a0478a976fd90cef8ee5a1a3d07f8847277796b41b4b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Falcons, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked paiN | 13c | 25,000$3,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,249.99 | 214 | 24.8%53 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked paiN | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…a28dbacked paiN | 5c | 2,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed paiN | 14c | 1,786$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed paiN | 14c | 1,526$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.64 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed paiN | 14c | 937.27$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.22 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked paiN | 14c | 850.91$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed paiN | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…6525backed paiN | 14c | 770$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed paiN | 14c | 715.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed paiN | 13c | 599.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed paiN | 14c | 472.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…bd96backed paiN | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked paiN | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked paiN | 13c | 398.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed paiN | 14c | 348.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f0…60dabacked paiN | 13c | 218.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…81d0backed paiN | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.