Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho State Bengals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb79201076b5d333cb7af25ffb8bf62f863f1ca771af194d39533c795f6e23ea2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Idaho State Bengalsof Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, Idaho State Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,509 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Idaho State Bengals | 67c | 977.37$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.44 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 35c | 971.96$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.19 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 28c | 843.76$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.68 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Idaho State Bengals | 66c | 842.67$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.95 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 33c | 632.19$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.62 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…36bcbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 2c | 599.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Idaho State Bengals | 73c | 527.74$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.05 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 25c | 496.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Idaho State Bengals | 65c | 475.99$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b54…d382backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 23c | 412.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 34c | 396.86$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.93 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Idaho State Bengals | 67c | 356.21$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.55 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 35c | 337.3$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 8c | 234.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Idaho State Bengals | 65c | 228.93$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 34c | 198.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Idaho State Bengals | 75c | 184.13$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Idaho State Bengals | 65c | 152.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Idaho State Bengals | 67c | 148.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6eb…4c0bbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 36c | 138.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 33c | 106.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…d7c3backed Idaho State Bengals | 65c | 99.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 491 | 57.2%281 W · 210 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 20c | 99.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Idaho State Bengals | 65c | 90.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 36c | 89.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed Idaho State Bengals | 65c | 76.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 135 | 65.9%89 W · 46 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 33c | 74.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Idaho State Bengals | 71c | 67.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…750abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 34c | 59.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…a7b8backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 34c | 35.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 35c | 34.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 35c | 32.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 35c | 30.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Idaho State Bengals | 65c | 22.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 379 | 47.8%181 W · 198 L | -26.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Idaho State Bengals | 67c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…75abbacked Idaho State Bengals | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Idaho State Bengals | 64c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho State Bengalsthis page
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho State Bengals: O/U 141.5Under won
- Spread: Idaho State Bengals (-4.5)Idaho State Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.