Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7f4b9d125ab6dfcece13b3de7f6249af6ef742d847b39c5627ece70bd9e5f31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 3c | 2,873$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,090$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 357.43$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 329.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 20c | 314.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 278.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 12c | 230.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 27c | 208.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 204.36$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 21c | 199.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 150.97$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 30c | 150.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 70c | 142.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 9c | 141.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 134.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…1d99backed Yes | 21c | 118$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 17c | 117.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 116$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 24c | 111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 13c | 107.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 105.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 24c | 103.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 26c | 93.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 91.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 69c | 91.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 88.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 28c | 86.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 72.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 65.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 78c | 65.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 64.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 24c | 62.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 37c | 61.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 23c | 56.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 36c | 54.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 66c | 53.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 29c | 48.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 79c | 47.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…2fcbbacked No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 37.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 36c | 37.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 29c | 36.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…926abacked Yes | 30c | 33.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 34c | 33.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 45c | 33.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 62c | 29.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 79c | 23.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 22.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 22.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed No | 65c | 21.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 75c | 19.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 16.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 78c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.