NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs Kings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb818c47e0abef023250371b7bf6901d4b1fa6015c2f39e1b76d0f957741b0e70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Celtics | 62c | 8,282$5,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,159.98 | 283 | 47.7%135 W · 148 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Celtics | 63c | 1,544$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.02 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Kings | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 377 | 34%128 W · 249 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…edf8backed Kings | 39c | 1,029$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.39 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Kings | 37c | 943.93$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.25 | 618 | 35.4%219 W · 399 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed Celtics | 63c | 800$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Kings | 37c | 573.64$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.08 | 613 | 45.5%279 W · 334 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Kings | 39c | 512.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Celtics | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 1,198 | 46.8%561 W · 637 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Celtics | 63c | 473.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.44 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Celtics | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Celtics | 63c | 313.39$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.58 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked Celtics | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Kings | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed Kings | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e0…b2b4backed Celtics | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Kings | 36c | 173.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb928…5fd7backed Celtics | 61c | 171.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Kings | 39c | 145.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed Kings | 36c | 135$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…4b2ebacked Kings | 39c | 127.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Celtics | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 563 | 52%293 W · 270 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Celtics | 60c | 71.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…d871backed Celtics | 63c | 34.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 196 | 50%98 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.