Asian League · resolved market
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb825de4c227d9662e780701d6e910fee9121b7e6939382d2ef5431378f5236b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 2,019$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.16 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0540backed Over | 80c | 834.48$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 4c | 265.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +13.5wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…92a5backed Over | 49c | 233.88$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.88 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +126%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…1104backed Over | 66c | 200.05$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 46c | 129.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 18c | 122.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d0…ba9bbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 45c | 101.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…c30fbacked Under | 30c | 90.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 51c | 54.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 63c | 45.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 51c | 38.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…5e45backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5this page
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5Under won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 3.5Under won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.