Asian League · resolved market
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd87df57004f7133ce2c68a46f3c82b025deb076431e13c9c1f9a937e3a20db5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,333$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.3 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 57c | 710.72$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.11 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 37c | 541.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 52c | 415.74$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 70c | 405.74$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.72 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 376.03$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.34 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 43c | 348.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.47 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 35c | 299.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.84 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 37c | 267.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Over | 60c | 198.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d0…ba9bbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 60c | 167.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 59c | 135.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 43c | 129$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 46c | 119.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 33c | 90.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 45c | 77.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 76.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 57c | 64.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 57c | 61.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 54c | 53.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbecf…0f51backed Over | 58c | 51.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 57c | 43.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5495…fc8cbacked Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…cd51backed Under | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x963f…4487backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 69c | 15.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5this page
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 3.5Under won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.