Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb84e7e431fd1791362bdce6c90895de239a26fc75270ad00dd3fa4fa678a06de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdccb…a7a0backed Up | 21c | 5,000$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 68c | 4,484$3,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.22 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 2c | 3,209$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 18c | 3,000$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed Up | 21c | 1,628$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Up | 8c | 1,433$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.41 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…a1c2backed Up | 1c | 1,320$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up | 3c | 1,291$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…5eb1backed Up | 20c | 1,082$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 79c | 1,054$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.29 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Up | 15c | 1,042$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.18 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Up | 6c | 1,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 79c | 900$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 66c | 785.26$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.93 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 2c | 779.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed Down | 61c | 720$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 65c | 663.16$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.18 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Down | 73c | 630.65$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.94 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Down | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 48c | 565.45$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.69 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 3c | 543.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…d979backed Down | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…7bfcbacked Up | 18c | 320.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4016…4623backed Up | 36c | 312.81$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Up | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…bc25backed Down | 70c | 270$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…86c6backed Down | 78c | 247.78$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Up | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +233%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…d47cbacked Up | 23c | 199.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Up | 32c | 168.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down | 72c | 166.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Down | 72c | 144.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…27b4backed Down | 72c | 141.67$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Down | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…71fcbacked Down | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cd…55f6backed Up | 28c | 117.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…e73dbacked Up | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Down | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Up | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Down | 70c | 84.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Up | 52c | 81.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…c90bbacked Down | 72c | 74.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…e55dbacked Up | 53c | 62.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 53cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…6d06backed Up | 30c | 50.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed Down | 72c | 23.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…8b50backed Up | 68c | 15.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.