Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of August 17 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb84e89332e6a9f086afc3e0872f6c0059faa5110f164fa101c43a18a070790b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,133$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.08 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 41c | 897.41$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134e…d718backed No | 61c | 697.34$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.11 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ca…60aebacked No | 54c | 291$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 49c | 201.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 40c | 198.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.07 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe8…5135backed No | 67c | 147$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.51per pick | 68cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…9c25backed Yes | 21c | 129.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a14…8bafbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…7849backed Yes | 23c | 85.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…d61ebacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +361.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…872ebacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +361.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…fc83backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 34c | 49.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 32c | 47.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f84…b4c4backed Yes | 72c | 38.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d34…17e8backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 54c | 36.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 33.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 17.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of August 17 2026?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of August 17 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of August 17 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of August 17 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 Week of August 17 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 Week of August 17 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of August 17 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,250 Week of August 17 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of August 17 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.