Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8608c428d92852ec0ca498afa7a94f92c21f904c8c8f8875a9eea6d28c32c03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 340.11$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 215.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.77 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 25c | 207.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 202.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 67c | 119.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 42c | 111.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 108.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 107.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 58c | 88.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…ee84backed Yes | 43c | 82.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…b8c9backed Yes | 27c | 68.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 67.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 60.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 32c | 58.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 73c | 53.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 37c | 47.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 68c | 41.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…0269backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4f…2c34backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 63c | 35.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…45b9backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…295abacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee9…014bbacked No | 68c | 33.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 75c | 33.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…f55dbacked No | 70c | 29.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 29.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 62c | 22.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed No | 62c | 20.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 19.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 60c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.