La Liga · resolved market
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb88826a4b7cbea588aa64c7b4f1c8480ca3492fb1771117070dcb92a4274f157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,992 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 71c | 745$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.95 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 43c | 488.37$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 457$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.91 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 393.78$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.65 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 15c | 295.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 29c | 227$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.17 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 183.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 29c | 125$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 57c | 118.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 30c | 80.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…16a1backed Over | 59c | 68.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 30c | 53.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 32c | 41.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 170 | 32.9%56 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 30c | 35.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 28.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sporting de Gijón vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Sporting de Gijón vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sporting de Gijón vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sporting de Gijón vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.