World Politics · resolved market
Will Johannes Kaiser win between 10% and 13% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb894d2a3d40ad0a09b080036aa4aaf9d2ac5947a48ac0e00e4fbd15948f50ecc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Yes | 8c | 1,574$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.85 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 4c | 1,084$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 4c | 895.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 11c | 491.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 330.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 5c | 293.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked Yes | 8c | 167.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 75c | 142.46$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 55c | 108.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 98.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Johannes Kaiser win between 10% and 13% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will Johannes Kaiser win at least 19% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Johannes Kaiser win between 13% and 16% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will Johannes Kaiser win between 16% and 19% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Johannes Kaiser win between 7% and 10% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Johannes Kaiser win less than 7% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.