Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb89b0740b82efc845b720d6b01c17c3d3e2caea72f724f06d8fe0bca07c2149a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204e…8d08backed Yes | 0c | 15,949$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…ce6abacked No | 75c | 8,775$6,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.01 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 23c | 3,658$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.46 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,600$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 31c | 1,941$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.61 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 69c | 1,451$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.88 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 69c | 853.98$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.73 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 31c | 700$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 296.87$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 31c | 289.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…c7cfbacked No | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 78c | 289.35$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8006…94dcbacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 153.06$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1591…3cc4backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 35c | 141.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 70c | 117.79$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…7858backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 13cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0c2cbacked Yes | 24c | 59.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Yes | 27c | 49.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 69c | 45.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 76c | 35.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 33c | 33.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed No | 80c | 31.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…565cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 79c | 30.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 69c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 77c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will Auckland FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.