Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8efb3bd0d33c060dd1d7d170cfdc4e13089cc6171d2562003d0d5998cae0e09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 549.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 6c | 304.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed Yes | 11c | 290.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 76c | 212.64$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 187.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…7236backed Yes | 13c | 153.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 147.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf97b…c751backed Yes | 22c | 144.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 24c | 143.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 120.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked Yes | 24c | 118.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 28c | 114.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 18c | 111.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 107.34$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 99.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 20c | 97.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 96.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4122backed Yes | 21c | 94.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 17c | 93.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 87.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 86.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 79c | 79.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…dec8backed No | 79c | 76.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 68.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 77c | 53.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 39c | 44.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…7448backed No | 80c | 23.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed No | 78c | 20.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 80c | 16.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.