Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ff433c776f0024a4c60d877509116ea84e0c665199123ea31b541bedd634dd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,228$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.03 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…8d92backed No | 4c | 548.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 531.35$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 46c | 457.44$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.9 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 13c | 450.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 33c | 317.77$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 34c | 278.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.46 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 54c | 233.95$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 72c | 186.34$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 70c | 182.91$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 170.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 19c | 161.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 160.55$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 145.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 53c | 131$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 129.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 78c | 125.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 25c | 125.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 119.17$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 79c | 117.53$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 60c | 111.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 26c | 109.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked Yes | 17c | 108.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 107.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 96.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 15c | 92.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…4aeebacked No | 65c | 90.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 66c | 83.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 18c | 83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 47c | 75.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 74c | 74.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 79c | 73.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 25c | 72.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 75c | 70.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 21c | 69.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 24c | 69.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 32c | 64.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 55c | 64.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 62.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 57.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 62c | 57.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 33c | 55.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 79c | 53.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 78c | 50.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed No | 28c | 49.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 77c | 45.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 69c | 45.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 25c | 44.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 25c | 40.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 74c | 39.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…f0dcbacked No | 30c | 36.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4122backed Yes | 55c | 35.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 75c | 34.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 76c | 34.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 41c | 25.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ea…266abacked No | 57c | 25.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 71c | 24.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 80c | 24.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 74c | 23.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 68c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 70c | 20.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 19.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 76c | 19.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 79c | 16.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.