Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61cb19b4318279829d515ece11ed596e2cdfdb6a29952caf57463375c72af05a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x534a…023abacked Yes | 5c | 1,047$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 34c | 704.72$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.35 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 548.81$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 436.08$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.22 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 70c | 414.25$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 75c | 365.6$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 24c | 324.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 300.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 51c | 222.16$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 35c | 217.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 53c | 204.08$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 202.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 197.6$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 175.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 71c | 154.11$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 146.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 67c | 146.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 19c | 140.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 21c | 135.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…baa8backed Yes | 10c | 131.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 119.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 69c | 89.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 47c | 87.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 83.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 15c | 81.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 80.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…c51ebacked Yes | 53c | 70.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 58c | 69.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 75c | 64.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 31c | 59.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0196…6005backed Yes | 25c | 59.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.48per pick | 62cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 43c | 58.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4122backed Yes | 52c | 56.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 54c | 54.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 56c | 52.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 26c | 51.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 59c | 49.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 62c | 49.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 75c | 47.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed Yes | 27c | 46.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 44.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 43.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 43.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed No | 56c | 41.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c26…b2b8backed Yes | 34c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 55c | 39.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked Yes | 28c | 39.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed No | 71c | 39.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes | 43c | 38.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 70c | 36.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 80c | 36.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 54c | 34.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 56c | 33.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 78c | 31.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…24fcbacked Yes | 64c | 30.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 57c | 30.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 68c | 29.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 54c | 29.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0299…8739backed Yes | 37c | 27.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 59c | 24.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 64c | 24.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 62c | 23.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 66c | 22.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 22.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed No | 67c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed No | 71c | 18.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.