Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9011cbb564e4509a81ee6d273f4284872497a0bf7e3ef2a30fda5e3902f6b83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalmychataof Kalmychata, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Kalmychata | 68c | 3,000$2,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.75 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed VP.Prodigy | 22c | 2,852$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.69 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed VP.Prodigy | 3c | 1,057$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed VP.Prodigy | 10c | 719.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 640.25$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.09 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Kalmychata | 65c | 611$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.85 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…528fbacked VP.Prodigy | 5c | 609.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed VP.Prodigy | 17c | 565.68$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed VP.Prodigy | 3c | 532.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked VP.Prodigy | 31c | 464$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed VP.Prodigy | 17c | 415.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dff…7974backed VP.Prodigy | 4c | 406.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked VP.Prodigy | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked VP.Prodigy | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed VP.Prodigy | 32c | 289.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Kalmychata | 63c | 215.78$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked VP.Prodigy | 10c | 209.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked VP.Prodigy | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked VP.Prodigy | 20c | 165.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked VP.Prodigy | 37c | 121.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Kalmychata | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed VP.Prodigy | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…6b31backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…b8e6backed VP.Prodigy | 31c | 59.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Kalmychata | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kalmychata | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…4ee4backed VP.Prodigy | 42c | 35.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kalmychata | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Kalmychata | 52c | 21.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed Kalmychata | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed Kalmychata | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Kalmychata | 70c | 18.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerKalmychata won
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerKalmychata won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.