Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb92312277da72a5e072a800c5971aa838ad755584b4f2d6bd138fe53eeb4ff83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 11c | 1,491$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.9 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Yes | 11c | 283.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 180.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…b5bbbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…dacebacked Yes | 14c | 99.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 18c | 86.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 16c | 81.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d98…84cabacked Yes | 22c | 73.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 44.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?this page
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-27?Yes won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-02-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.