Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79373a482f4b9d903d4f799c2e22e817eff9126e8356760e198873f5464f5561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1467…4372backed No | 57c | 13,835$7,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,844 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 8c | 7,724$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.19 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 7c | 6,317$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.34 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 44c | 4,274$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,412.19 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 46c | 2,224$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.04 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 31c | 1,867$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.8 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 22c | 930.12$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 57c | 917.24$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.86 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Yes | 71c | 751.58$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 45c | 654.79$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.19 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…8e46backed No | 57c | 499.98$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Yes | 68c | 440.01$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.35 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 44c | 355.88$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.29 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Yes | 42c | 353.29$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 18c | 332.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 6c | 272.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 54c | 192$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 52c | 188.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 73c | 156.01$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 57c | 146.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…d9cfbacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 44c | 123$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 49c | 123$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked Yes | 46c | 107.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…d385backed No | 56c | 105.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 65c | 81.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 41 | 87.8%36 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 43c | 75.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 43c | 72.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…85e2backed Yes | 45c | 70.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…75abbacked No | 31c | 60.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f59abacked Yes | 46c | 60.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 45c | 60.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…f397backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Yes | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked Yes | 43c | 56.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501d…52e2backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…1c6ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 43c | 45.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…c1cebacked Yes | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 46c | 39.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 48c | 37.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…5b98backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 44c | 30.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 56c | 29.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed No | 57c | 24.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…203ebacked Yes | 59c | 18.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…1c75backed Yes | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-27?this page
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?No won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-02-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.