Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb92a6cc05b612f9b7c2d4bf6a1a2d88c323e29296262492396046a28c22431c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 2,625$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.21 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 1,850$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.63 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 1,665$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.08 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 28c | 1,197$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.85 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 39c | 616$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.6 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 67c | 452.39$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 74c | 428$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 63c | 317.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 73c | 299.72$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 73c | 273.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b5…3f5ebacked Over | 73c | 219.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 79c | 188.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 23c | 174.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee3…7287backed Over | 78c | 65.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Over | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 26c | 59.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 29c | 56.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 26c | 39.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 80c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5this page
- VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.