Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf49f9d3a0e7b21626a6cc3ddb8e6443174dfcf455fc6932519d47c19dfad566
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Under | 44c | 13,404$5,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,571.94 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae0…836abacked Over | 55c | 5,454$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 3,610$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.57 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 3,221$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.12 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 79c | 2,277$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.51 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…fd6bbacked Under | 45c | 1,847$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 52c | 1,783$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.34 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 1,538$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.2 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 56c | 1,359$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.36 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…f5f6backed Under | 66c | 1,353$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 64c | 1,284$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.16 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 58c | 859.97$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.86 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 56c | 800$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 612.26$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 19c | 554.68$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 48c | 552.41$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.75 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 45c | 440.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 53c | 222.64$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…d837backed Under | 19c | 195$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 43c | 155.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 53c | 148.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 55c | 138$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…a14cbacked Under | 47c | 131.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 36c | 128.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…8f48backed Over | 55c | 114$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 54c | 110.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 47c | 105.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 38c | 89.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 38c | 69.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Over | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 56.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 55c | 54.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…2e72backed Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…8147backed Under | 47c | 47.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 53c | 44.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 45c | 40.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 43c | 32.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12e…27c2backed Under | 45c | 27.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…683fbacked Over | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed6a…841ebacked Over | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Over | 52c | 20.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Over | 57c | 18.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5this page
- VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.