Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74–75°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb951602aa6b5b81cbc0d1a5b6e92a91397c7322a48d820d1de4bd92fa0a97853
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a11…33f5backed Yes | 0c | 10,960$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…a1fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,533$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…e5c7backed Yes | 58c | 123.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 42c | 122.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…06c4backed Yes | 47c | 105.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 41c | 101.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 50c | 99.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 32c | 97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 15c | 82.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…3d96backed Yes | 39c | 81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 78.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…3a77backed Yes | 41c | 66.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Yes | 75c | 66.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0b…c2b3backed No | 61c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6b…fdbbbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4086…c7fcbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…31abbacked Yes | 49c | 45.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…8728backed No | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +171%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 58c | 43.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…9434backed Yes | 42c | 30.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 174 | 24.1%42 W · 132 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…119ebacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 45c | 26.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…ceb8backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…5ebbbacked Yes | 57c | 24.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74af…52b2backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…a2fdbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b3…d1d8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…5585backed Yes | 62c | 19.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 61c | 17.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74–75°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70–71°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72–73°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76–77°F on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78–79°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.