Europa Conference League · resolved market
Larne FC vs. SK Iberia 1999: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9557478f1acc29f9b7f28f4c904f1971093e146d5137071b20cb890826dbef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 44c | 7,039$3,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,066.22 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 76c | 3,214$2,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.87 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 6c | 1,649$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 56c | 1,493$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.38 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 1,250$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1,046 | 50.2%525 W · 521 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 56c | 1,171$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.16 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 671.62$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.1 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 40c | 536.68$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.67 | 136 | 50.7%69 W · 67 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 57c | 505.03$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.77 | 1,037 | 46.1%478 W · 559 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 402.66$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.29 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 56c | 351.68$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.68 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 70c | 209.56$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 40c | 201.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…5ab8backed Over | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -6.7wins | -0.39per pick | 51cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…2224backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…601abacked Over | 18c | 158.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Over | 45c | 100.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…4591backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 40c | 98.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +15.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 40c | 77.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 76 | 77.6%59 W · 17 L | +13.5wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 40c | 74.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 40c | 74.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 31c | 64.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 31c | 60.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…504bbacked Under | 57c | 52.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 32c | 42.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…0769backed Under | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 58c | 40.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 71c | 38.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…55d7backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 57c | 34.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 978 | 46.2%452 W · 526 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb756…92d7backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 55c | 32.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Over | 42c | 30.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 56c | 30.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 443 | 56.2%249 W · 194 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 72c | 27.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 69c | 23.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 60c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 60c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Larne FC vs. SK Iberia 1999: O/U 2.5this page
- Larne FC vs. SK Iberia 1999: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. SK Iberia 1999: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Larne FC vs. SK Iberia 1999: Larne FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. SK Iberia 1999: O/U 0.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. SK Iberia 1999: O/U 1.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. SK Iberia 1999: O/U 3.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. SK Iberia 1999: O/U 4.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. SK Iberia 1999: O/U 5.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. SK Iberia 1999: Team to AdvanceSK Iberia 1999 won
- Spread: Larne FC (-1.5)SK Iberia 1999 won
- Spread: SK Iberia 1999 (-1.5)Larne FC won
- Spread: SK Iberia 1999 (-2.5)Larne FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.