CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Fortress - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9e2173d179ba9a190ba2695f164be794afa217c4edb97c7e6d8c30a783a3e5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noir Verseof Noir Verse, Fortress
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Fortress | 39c | 485.8$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.11 | 1,020 | 52.2%532 W · 488 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Noir Verse | 69c | 220.39$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Fortress | 12c | 133.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 817 | 44.7%365 W · 452 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…1b8abacked Fortress | 21c | 81.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fortress | 26c | 79.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Noir Verse | 68c | 54.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf186…03a9backed Fortress | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 224 | 52.2%117 W · 107 L | +20.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fortress | 33c | 45.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Fortress | 26c | 41.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,890 | 41.9%791 W · 1,099 L | -71.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Fortress | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,142 | 54.4%621 W · 521 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Noir Verse | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Noir Verse | 75c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde47…cb61backed Noir Verse | 75c | 26.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 72cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Fortress | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 861 | 54.1%466 W · 395 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Fortress - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Fortress (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Group CNoir Verse won
- Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Fortress - Map 2 WinnerNoir Verse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.