CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Fortress (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Group C
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47db8f6eadc1bebadd313440a2aea65828a1182264eb74cd50782fd6bfc19c6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noir Verseof Noir Verse, Fortress
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Noir Verse | 80c | 4,332$3,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.22 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Fortress | 20c | 1,870$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.6 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc386…386fbacked Fortress | 20c | 1,177$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.4 | 259 | 44.8%116 W · 143 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…6628backed Fortress | 21c | 959.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Noir Verse | 80c | 949.37$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.87 | 597 | 55.4%331 W · 266 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Noir Verse | 80c | 748.05$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.41 | 465 | 55.1%256 W · 209 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…dd57backed Fortress | 20c | 664.58$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Fortress | 20c | 600$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 495 | 36.4%180 W · 315 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fortress | 15c | 536.31$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…88f9backed Fortress | 28c | 521.07$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.9 | 470 | 54%254 W · 216 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…49c8backed Fortress | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Noir Verse | 80c | 499.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Fortress | 13c | 437.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Fortress | 13c | 393.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 758 | 33.4%253 W · 505 L | -48.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Fortress | 8c | 279.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4e…5c01backed Fortress | 20c | 213.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…1b8abacked Fortress | 21c | 206.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Fortress | 22c | 203$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Noir Verse | 76c | 199.98$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Fortress | 24c | 188.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Fortress | 13c | 173.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…2b5dbacked Fortress | 23c | 171.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Fortress | 14c | 171$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Fortress | 20c | 159.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 378 | 48.1%182 W · 196 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…ed78backed Fortress | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Noir Verse | 72c | 141.41$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Noir Verse | 80c | 100.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b7…c557backed Fortress | 20c | 93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Fortress | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 545 | 43.5%237 W · 308 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Fortress | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Fortress | 25c | 59.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Noir Verse | 80c | 56.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 140 | 68.6%96 W · 44 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fortress | 22c | 46.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed Noir Verse | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 838 | 56.1%470 W · 368 L | +31.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Fortress | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Noir Verse | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Noir Verse | 80c | 29.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…ab76backed Noir Verse | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 338 | 49.7%168 W · 170 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Noir Verse | 76c | 21.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 292 | 46.9%137 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8818…f8acbacked Noir Verse | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Noir Verse | 80c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 422 | 55.7%235 W · 187 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Noir Verse | 80c | 12.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.53 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Fortress (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Group Cthis page
- Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Fortress - Map 1 WinnerNoir Verse won
- Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Fortress - Map 2 WinnerNoir Verse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.