MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9f8e6bb3a6b60213d25b521272e9a5a43be64854be2d9610e7526767d8cfdc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,645 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd696…8a49backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 3,886$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,141.68 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed New York Mets | 1c | 3,713$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed New York Mets | 31c | 1,648$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed New York Mets | 56c | 1,484$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.69 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed New York Mets | 18c | 900$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 57c | 638.69$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.32 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…d3d0backed New York Mets | 2c | 622.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…2421backed New York Mets | 12c | 523$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed New York Mets | 58c | 521.58$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 501.55$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.6 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 48c | 486.93$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.13 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed New York Mets | 32c | 465.13$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…8276backed New York Mets | 56c | 366.89$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed New York Mets | 55c | 360.45$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.85 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed New York Mets | 25c | 337.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked New York Mets | 53c | 318$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.56 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 296$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.76 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed New York Mets | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked New York Mets | 51c | 270$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 243.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.89 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked New York Mets | 55c | 241$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.82 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked New York Mets | 42c | 191.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 187$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed New York Mets | 50c | 159$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed New York Mets | 56c | 143.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed New York Mets | 22c | 115.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed New York Mets | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed New York Mets | 57c | 88.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 73.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed New York Mets | 57c | 69.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed New York Mets | 43c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 66.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked New York Mets | 58c | 63.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked New York Mets | 53c | 62.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed New York Mets | 39c | 62.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked New York Mets | 45c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed New York Mets | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed New York Mets | 33c | 51.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed New York Mets | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed New York Mets | 53c | 45.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c14…ec94backed New York Mets | 58c | 34.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed New York Mets | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed New York Mets | 59c | 21.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked New York Mets | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.