CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba1cdaeb7f5400b4788dc17701255c305a7c6a4953b6a35c31d443b182bfe43d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Allianceof Alliance, fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Alliance | 62c | 2,419$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.17 | 4,238 | 49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L | +60.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Alliance | 58c | 909.65$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.9 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed fnatic | 54c | 765.15$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.73 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked fnatic | 44c | 665.97$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.89 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked fnatic | 36c | 408.85$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.16 | 3,236 | 51.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L | +88.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked fnatic | 46c | 386.98$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.04 | 949 | 45.8%435 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…7d99backed Alliance | 54c | 300.01$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed fnatic | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…8d42backed fnatic | 54c | 211.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.09 | 529 | 47.1%249 W · 280 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked fnatic | 57c | 191.01$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.88 | 849 | 37.8%321 W · 528 L | -20.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked Alliance | 55c | 160$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 159 | 35.2%56 W · 103 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…eea9backed Alliance | 58c | 159.87$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…31d6backed fnatic | 32c | 149.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 278 | 31.7%88 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed fnatic | 44c | 148.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed fnatic | 33c | 133.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 559 | 50.3%281 W · 278 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed fnatic | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Alliance | 48c | 111.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 416 | 40.6%169 W · 247 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed fnatic | 17c | 107$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Alliance | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…6d77backed fnatic | 34c | 96.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 227 | 34.4%78 W · 149 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Alliance | 73c | 95.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed fnatic | 21c | 90.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 635 | 41.1%261 W · 374 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c0…b0e0backed fnatic | 55c | 89.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Alliance | 65c | 84.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 493 | 76.1%375 W · 118 L | +96.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed fnatic | 51c | 83.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 374 | 45.7%171 W · 203 L | -29.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Alliance | 65c | 75.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked fnatic | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 363 | 34.2%124 W · 239 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…526dbacked Alliance | 43c | 67.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 224 | 44.6%100 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked fnatic | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 313 | 28.4%89 W · 224 L | -21.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…f089backed fnatic | 45c | 55.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 321 | 38.3%123 W · 198 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d1…6e8ebacked fnatic | 61c | 52.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7f…6e16backed fnatic | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked fnatic | 42c | 41.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 164 | 51.8%85 W · 79 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…d4bbbacked Alliance | 48c | 40.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Alliance | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 293 | 47.8%140 W · 153 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…6b39backed Alliance | 55c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…374abacked Alliance | 43c | 36.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 278 | 48.6%135 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked fnatic | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 295 | 55.3%163 W · 132 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Alliance | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Alliance | 62c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,474 | 24.7%611 W · 1,863 L | -316.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs fnatic - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs fnatic (BO3) - DraculaN PlayoffsAlliance won
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs fnatic - Map 2 WinnerAlliance won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.