Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will a 1 seed win the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba2ed3243ee50ce4a3fe6f92985132673f0021868c191ff9a1e38016c928c1f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 24c | 429.11$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d83…d1dabacked Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.07 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd93f…1e30backed Yes | 76c | 395.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95c1…819abacked Yes | 78c | 254.37$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 32c | 199$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 68c | 189$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 22c | 118.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 32c | 70.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…bf2fbacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…fa8fbacked No | 28c | 56.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9147backed Yes | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 24c | 47.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes | 76c | 24.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Yes | 73c | 15.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a 1 seed win the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament?this page
- Will a 2 seed win the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will a 3 seed win the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.